Thursday, 12 March 2020

It was a sell everything day.. cash is king

Its been four days this week and we have had two 2K+ down days as well as one 1K+ up and down day. The volatility and velocity in the stock market is something quite unpresidented, and today, we had the crypto currencies joing the sell off, with Bitcoin trading a further 25% lower trading at around $4600. Its an asset fire sale, with the European Banking index down over 15%, major European Indices down over 10%, US Indices also sharply lower.
Overnight futures currently sharply lower once again as selling pressure continues.
The volatility has been good for the day trader, key to be flat by the end. The DOW/ES spread has held relatively well as the broad based sell off trading between 3600 and 3850 pretty much the whole session, key was keeeping small but trading often as the volailtiy allowed for multiple entries and exits.
During these times keeping small is key, its how I survived 2008/09, and its how i look to get through this. Spreads in general have worked well. containing the volatility, as well as provvide more short term opportunities.
Keep an eye out for the Itraxx crossover levels, as 5 year CDS spreads on many nations are pushing to multi month highs. If interbank lending freezes, we could see Eurodollars, Euribor and Short Sterling yields rise sharply, whilst Governemnt bonds will see the flight to safety blowing out those spreads.
As we wait for the coordinated fiscal response, whether it will calm the markets remains to be seen, but as the VIX rises above 70, at levels not seen over 10 years, the fear continues to mount.

Thursday, 5 March 2020

US 10 year yield continues to decline, consolidated below 1%

As US bond yields continue to plummet, US bond yield spreads have widened as markets continue to factor in more rate cuts from the FED, following on from the 50bp 'Emergency cut', during the week. 
With Eurodollar spreads sitting at lows for many weeks, the only play was long there, and so the rise in spreads has been nice as we now approach the upper end of the recent range, looking for shorting opportunities around these levels for Dec21/Mar22 through to Dec 22.

The DOW/S&P spread has been a good play of late, has not been as skewed by the tech names like the Nasdaq. The spred ranged in a 100 point range, inside the larger range, and scalping 25 ticks at a time, around 4040 long and 4170-4200 short has been my play today, which has worked so far as the spread has remained fairly steady on this broad based sell off.




In this tricky environment, keeping it small, and quick to cut the break out.

Front month WTI Futures plunges to negative $37 as storage costs rocket

It was a move of epic proportions in the front month WTI Crude futures, the significance of which is not really known of yet, but was incre...