Wednesday, 1 April 2009

Stocks up before ECB meeting

As we approach the ECB rate decision the curve shifts continued from yesterday with the from month Euribors getting sold relatively to the red months, with the jun10-sep10 spread falling to 20s. At the same time the reds were stronger then the greens as the body of the curve is shifting upwards, with Mar11-Jun11 trading 23s. I tried to focus trading spreads between Sep10 and Mar11, as they were ranging in a 1/2 tick range, and had less fluctuations. Today was quiet with lacklustre volume again. Bunds are hugging the resistance of 124.50, where we go from here will be heavily influenced by tomorrows decision. Below is a chart of the bund range:



As far as stocks goes, European and US markets erased early losses as we ended up the day near highs. I'm still in doubt about this rally, personally I don't think it makes sense. We have 2 of the big 3 car markets going bankrupt in my opinion, hundreds if not thousands of big companys will fail ,commercial real estate is going to collapse, and residental still has another 20% down to go Fed has tripled it's balance sheet, money supply nearly doubled in the past 6 months, Govt. on the hook for 10 trillion since summer, new bretton woods coming, no one buying the long bond other than the Fed and their quantitative easing and the markets go higher.
What do you think?

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