Friday, 15 May 2009

German Bunds go higher

Yesterday we saw bunds push up, and this is being continued today as we touch 122. We have risen over 150 points in the last few days as long term yields fall. Despite the rise in Bunds, Stocks showed some strength with technology leading us higher.
Spreads along the Euribor and Short Sterling strip have stabilised some what, as we have pulled back to levels we were trading before the Trichets comments last Thursday. I tended to be more long the spread yesterday, and is what I will continue today, but still hedge with another spread if necessary.

I have come across a piece by Jeremy Grantham on Business Insider, who is a bull about the short term and a depressive bear about the long-term. So what does that mean exactly?

It means there's 0.56 probability the market will eventually plunge to a new low. (See details below).



How's that for precision!

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