Saturday, 9 May 2009

3m Euribor and Short sterling spreads continue to go up

So it appears Thursdays action was just a blip in this onward march in stocks, as long end bonds get sold off heavily. Stock markets around the world rose as financials lead the way on better then expected job numbers It was interesting, as Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley will all be diluting their shares by offering stock at prices well below the current price, yet they all rally high single digit percentages. Is that normal? Well nothing is normal in this market environment, but continues the theme where the market is at a disconnect to the actual economic scenario. It is literally a matter of supply and Demand right now. No one wants to miss this move.

The move along the yield curve is continuing to steepen as short end is being bought up and long end is selling off. Bunds breached the 120.50 support and it is now likely that will act as a new resistance, as we hit it twice and came back of in Fridays trading. My assumption that we will hit 124s before 120.50 failed to materialise, but it is very unlikely we going to see 124 any time soon, unless things take an unexpected turn for the worse.
Euribor spreads and Short Sterling spreads continued its march upwards as long end continues to be sold off. Trading was slightly easier then Thursday as the Euribor was moving in a more orderly fashion. I remained a seller when we breached new highs on the spreads, but bought any pullbacks, which seemed to work. I'm expecting these spreads to stabilise at these levels for the next few days, before coming off a small bit.
As for stocks, I would think that next week we maybe give some back after a 6% on the DOW, but don't bet against another few hundred point move on the upside as we aim towards 9000.

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