Tuesday, 9 June 2009

3m Euribor sells off

It was coming really, whilst the bund has come off 600+ points from its highs, the short end of the curve has been pretty stationary. However since Thursday we have seen a continued sell of in the euribors, schtaz and short sterling which have seen us come off over 60 ticks in Euribor, and almost 100 ticks in the schatz.
Spreads have deviated wildly, with the front of the curve seeing spreads go up over 5 full ticks, where as further out on the curve, red and green month spreads have come of 4 full ticks. Liquidity has been good lately and this downside has been accompanied by very good volume
Expectation is that we will need a rate hike earlier then first thought and this is putting downward pressure along the curve.
Bunds have seemed to have levelled off around the 118 level, and looks like it could consolidate around here then look for a bounce to 118.43, then 119.24 as next targets.
Equities still seem very bullish to me. Yesterday early spike down was a test of nerves for the bulls, as most are still expecting a pullback soon, but we managed to stage a late rally on the US markets which brought us flat, and European stocks have taken there cue and are all strongly higher this morning. Despite the state of the economy, and worries about inflation, there seems to be only way these stocks are going and that is up and a significant break of the 949.00 level may open the door for another leg higher and if 962.25 can be broken 1,000.00 may well be on the cards.

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