Monday, 15 June 2009

Bund breaks 119

We have a rally in all bonds as we sell of in equities this morning. Bunds are up over 50 points so far, reaching a high of 119.18, and has almost reached the second target of 119.24.
Euribor spreads continue to remain high in the front months, and are starting to come off more further down the curve. With the general feeling being a rate hike earlier rather then later, the back end of the curve has taken a real hammering, but with my belief that stocks are looking to turnaround, this may in turn lead to a recovery in the long end of the curve.
Index futures are pointing down sharply today, with European shares heading lower. The DAX is back below 5000, and the Eurostoxx back below 2500. Often early weakness has been countered by continued support, so it will be interesting today to see whether we get a real sell off, or a buy into weakness scenario.

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