Monday, 29 June 2009

Bunds Up Stocks UP

The Bund continues its march upwards as is Stocks. Bunds are close to reaching the 121.50 target, as long term yields continue to fall.
An interesting point is the level of the VIX, which is below 25, which is below the level the VIX was at before the Lehman collapse. Is the market getting complacent?
Well sentiment trumps all, and there is in my opinion a definite disconnect between what is actually happening and what is happening in the markets.
With a very important thursday coming up, this will definately be the catalyst for a break above 9000 or below 8000 in the DOW.
The US will kick start the job numbers for the second half of the year, and we are all wondering how long will it be before we actually have job creation. Not till next year most likely, but it is likely we will have another gradual improvement when the numbers are released.
As far as the ECB goes, it is expected for rates to remain on hold, and according to ECB sources, they will be on hold for a long time to come, which gave a boost to Bunds and stocks.

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