Well judging by the rampant rally in the stock indicies, it appears to be so. We are soon to be crossing the 5000 mark on the FTSE 100, and 10000 isn't far away in the Dow.
Alot of shorts are getting hit on these move up as many who thought we will revisit the lows are being forced to cover positions on the back of better data all round and generally bullish sentiment.
Although many still remain bearish, path of least resistance is up it seems, one of those still a bear is Nouriel Roubini (one of the guys who predicted the recession).
He says:
Employment remains weak.
We're still facing a solvency crisis, as true deleveraging has yet to occur.
Countries with current account deficits (like the US) will need their consumers to retrench further.
The financial system remains severely damaged.
Corporate profits will remain weak, discouraing companies from hiring new workers.
Public sector re-leveraging will crowd out the private sector, and stimulus will run out next year
Without revitalized consumer in "surplus" countries (like China), demand will remain weak overall.
Finally, he gives two reasons to fear the dreaded double dip. The first is the possibility that the Fed will fail (miss the landing strip, so to speak) as it undoes pro-liquidity policies. The second is the likelihood of commodity prices (food, copper, oil) coming back with a vengeance. He believes the global economy could not tolerate $100 oil this time around.
The bottom line however is that sentiment trumps all, and as far as the markets go, we are still going up.
Thoughts and commentary on daily market action, plus my trade log in equities and futures.
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