Today's number was a bit of a joke, we had headline non farm payrolls come out 110k worse then expected yet we have a improvement in the unemployment rate from 9.5% to 9%. Clearly there has been a shrinkage in the workforce, but I have to wonder whether there is some government manipulation in these figures, as to not upset the mood of the stock markets.
More interesting is from a little observed data metric: that showing the number of people who are not in the labor force, but who want a job now. The number just hit 6,643K, a jump of 431K from December, and the highest number in history. These are people that would send the unemployment rate to about 12% if they were in the labor force. Nothing else needs to be said.
In terms of trading action, many other traders would agree as we had some horrendous reversals in bonds on the number, as we initially popped up higher then reversed hard as traders digested the unemployment number and pushed the market the other way. I was trading the bobl.
I went long on the Bobl, managed to eke out a small gain before the reversal happened.
Short sterling spreads were racing higher on the number, where as euribor spreads were a bit more in line, with the back end coming off.
I think its becoming a lot harder for clear money making opportunities on non farm, as there seems to be too many components that have an effect on the price action.
Looking to next week we have a lighter week in terms of data, it looks like we still have more downside to go in bonds as rate hikes becoming more priced in.
Thoughts and commentary on daily market action, plus my trade log in equities and futures.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Front month WTI Futures plunges to negative $37 as storage costs rocket
It was a move of epic proportions in the front month WTI Crude futures, the significance of which is not really known of yet, but was incre...
-
Much has been said about the new phone and the response on the surface seems exactly how you would expect it to be. Regardless of what Appl...
-
In the previous ECB meeting we had a split decision on whether to cut rates further or not but today Mario Draghi said the council decided ...
-
With the raft of poor data out this morning, we got some strong selling pressure in all parts of the curve. The 2s-10s spread hit an all tim...
No comments:
Post a Comment