Friday, 4 February 2011

Non farm payroll a mixed bag

Today's number was a bit of a joke, we had headline non farm payrolls come out 110k worse then expected yet we have a improvement in the unemployment rate from 9.5% to 9%. Clearly there has been a shrinkage in the workforce, but I have to wonder whether there is some government manipulation in these figures, as to not upset the mood of the stock markets.
More interesting is from a little observed data metric: that showing the number of people who are not in the labor force, but who want a job now. The number just hit 6,643K, a jump of 431K from December, and the highest number in history. These are people that would send the unemployment rate to about 12% if they were in the labor force. Nothing else needs to be said.
In terms of trading action, many other traders would agree as we had some horrendous reversals in bonds on the number, as we initially popped up higher then reversed hard as traders digested the unemployment number and pushed the market the other way. I was trading the bobl.
I went long on the Bobl, managed to eke out a small gain before the reversal happened.
Short sterling spreads were racing higher on the number, where as euribor spreads were a bit more in line, with the back end coming off.
I think its becoming a lot harder for clear money making opportunities on non farm, as there seems to be too many components that have an effect on the price action.
Looking to next week we have a lighter week in terms of data, it looks like we still have more downside to go in bonds as rate hikes becoming more priced in.

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