Wednesday, 23 May 2012

Euro reaches 2 year low

The most obvious trade panned out over the past few days and that was to go short the Euro. It held up for a long time before finally caving in and now trading 1.2550, reaching a 2 year low. This was couple with a bloodbath in the equity markets, and Bund hitting a new high at 144.28.. do I hear 145? Spreads as you would expect have gone further down, after holding up relatively well over the past few days. I have been short the back end, namely Dec13Mar14 at 6s, and Mar14Jun14 at 8.5s. To get my half tick on these was a long old wait, but it finally came. I have now switched my attention to front end where I have gone long Mar13Jun13 at 2s, and currently in the red on this as the overall sentiment of the market has pushed this lower, and we teetering with the 1.5 level. The market tone now will be dictated by a meeting by European delegates regarding possible steps to stabilise the situation. Any surprise announcement could lead to a big rally in these stock markets and sell of in the Bunds, as so much pessimism has been priced in. Any sort of indication that Germany might change their stance on the adoption of the Eurobond mite see us change course, however this will most likely be just temporary as it is likely we will continue on this course afterwards. Looking forward I will see what the announcement is from the meeting before deciding which way to trade.

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