Thoughts and commentary on daily market action, plus my trade log in equities and futures.
Friday, 4 May 2012
Non Farm Disappoints again
Non Farm Payrolls came in at 115k, 45k below expectations, which lead to a sell off in the stocks markets. The US market in my opinion have been due a sell off as Dow was at 4 year highs 3 days ago, and given the raft of disappointing data it is normal to assume some money will come off the table. Whilst the american indices are up 10% for the year, the FTSE and European indices are hovering near flat, which shows the massive performance disparity between these regions, and since we are connected in this world, I would assume that the american markets will start converging with the UK markets over the course of the next few months.
Bunds broke 142, it keeps going higher, as investors flock to safe haven assets as we keep flattening across the Bond yield curve. As you would expect with such flattening, we have narrowing Euribor spreads, which are testing the long term lows. As I did before, I am buying down here, where I believe risk to reward is good. The 4.5s in Jun13 sep13, worked out well over the past couple of days, and I have gone long small again right now, aiming to buy more at 4s should it get there. Im also looking at Dec13Mar14 spreads at 6s which I have gone long at which is lows of this spread. It looks like ill have to wait till Monday to see if this turns out to be any good.
Volume generally has dropped off in the Short end, as Mario Monte didn't indicate any further easing measures in yesterdays rate meeting, and the ECB kept rates on hold. With not much more new information it looks like traders are staying on the side lines.
Below is some video analysis, including some leaked Non farm moves.
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