Thoughts and commentary on daily market action, plus my trade log in equities and futures.
Thursday, 17 May 2012
Spreads under pressure as Greece verging on Bankruptcy
Well last post I said 143 might be a ceiling on the Bund, but clearly that didn't work out as we broker through that, but we have tested 143.69 on numerous occasions and for now that seems to be holding. At this current moment the best way to trade all of this, is to stop trying to make sense out of it. German yields at sub 1.5% don't make sense, but does it matter...NO. Trade the sentiment, but be prepared for some short term solution which inevitably is going to give a spike to the equities and drop in bonds. When that will happen who knows.
We have had like 10 losing session in a row for the NASDAQ, as well as other indices, and historically when such a move has occurred you often get a hard push to the upside for a brief period before resuming the original trend. That may be the opportunity to short his market, as there is no fix for Greece's problems, and they will inevitably in my opinion leave the euro.
As far as spreads are concerned, as you would expect given the deterioting credit condition of Euribor, we are coming off, trading at lows. We went as low as 1.5 in Mar13Jun13, 4.5 in Dec13Mar14, to name a few notable ones. Both times they proved to be good longs as we have popped up a couple of ticks yesterday. Around the levels we are at now I'm looking to short, I managed to short some 4.5s in Jun13sep13 with a lucky fill, and looking to do it again if an opportunity arises.
In the Short Sterling space, we are under pressure on all the spreads, as the BoE revised down growth forecasts in yesterdays inflation report. That sunk cable 70 pips, and we are hovering around lows in the short sterling spreads. I've used this opportunity to get long a bunch of them, I'm long 4s in Mar14Jun14 currently, given this was 7s two days ago. Hopefully this gives an out some point today.
Looking forward,trade will be dominated by Euro zone developments, hopefully it provides the volatility need for some profitable opportunities.
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