In what was one of the most crowded trades in the market, the drop in the Bund lead to a domino effect as we came off over 250 points in over a day as we traded below 141 this morning, before seeing some retrace currently trading at 141.70.
This big move in the Bund was accompanied by a big stock move, or a big move in the Euro which suggests its Bond specific, as traders may be betting on a big announcement from European officials when they get back from there summer break.
This move down in the Bund, prompted a big drop in Euribors also and hence some major steepening along the curve. Spreads moved more then I have seen in a long time, with barely any retrace making it a very difficult and tough day to trade, especially for mean reversion traders like myself. What made it harder was that there was no real apparent news for this big move, so no real warning either.
Mar14Jun14 was trading 7.5/8s before trading as high as 10s this morning. This action has been the same along the curve, with bigger moves on wider maturity spreads.
I've been selling these all the way up, and I'm holding put as personally I think this is overdone, but Im slowly taking bits of the table to lower risk, but this by far has been the most trend day so far of the year I can remember. But I guess its better then flat lining.
Although the move up yesterday was on low volume as expected in August, so hoping for some type of retracement.
Not much else out for the week, so will be taking it easy, watching where these Euribor Spreads settle.
Thoughts and commentary on daily market action, plus my trade log in equities and futures.
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