Wednesday, 26 September 2012

Stocks Rally Fizzling out?

After a huge run up in stock markets, on all corners of the globe, it seems now that Europe questions are being asked again, the optimism is waning  The Dow dropped 100 points yesterday despite good data out of the US regarding consumer confidence.
The Bund is always consolidated above 140, having been trading mid 138s last week.
The real question is has anything changed, we have assurances from central banks that they will fully support indebted nations, but the fact remains that we are still not growing, numbers look weak and without growth its hard to grow out of this mess, and for this reason longer term I dont see no other way to go then sell stocks, and buy Bunds. Stocks have been artificially bid on the back of the Fed Easing strategy, but there's no real macro fundamentals to really back this up.
Earnings next week will paint a better picture next week, but although we are likely to get better numbers, its more by being efficient, cutting costs rather then employing workers and growing rapidly.

Looking at STIR spreads they have been in a tight range as you would expect, and so just playing the small moves nicking half tick here and there seems best play. Nothing really notable to mention in the past week, but we have been seeing more volume in these STIRs which is good, with over 100k contracts trading on many contracts.

Been looking at Brent Oil Spreads, and that saw a breakout on Monday in the 1 month butterflies at the front of the curve, which was a bit nasty, although it has faded some of it. These spreads are moving quite a bit, so providing more opportunity but much more breakout prone lately.

As far as the rest of the week goes, not much on the calendar, and we look to next week as we get a raft of data to see where we go.

2 comments:

  1. Thanks for sharing your great blog. Really enjoyed reading about your thoughts and views on this.

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