To say this has been a tough year has been an understatement. I have made 40% of what I did last year, which was disappointing but you have to take the positives out of it and hope it will be better next year.
When looking back the main issue really was lack of volume. Due to various factors including the decline of MF Global and PFG best, confidence in the market isn't what it once was and hence more people staying on the sidelines and have there money in safe investments rather then be in the market. This is a shame really but a reality. I can only hope the regulators get there act together to stop scandal mania happening as frequently in the future.
As far as the markets are concerned, with the pledge of low rates for multiple years and a generally sluggish economy, have seen Bond yields remain at record low yields for the best part of the year, coupled with rising equity prices which goes against the conventional correlation but with no return to be found in other asset classes, it was inevitable that money going into stocks was the best bet.
With spreads, as you would expect has been in a super tight range, which has made it easily predictable but the low volume environment has meant that its been a slow trade, with multi day holds being the new day trading!
Also with the low rate environment reaction to data has been very mute, so news trading has been quite tough as well.
Looking to next year, I certainly have more optimism, as the FED has pinned a target on the employment rate at which it would consider moving on rates. This would give the market a focus, and so any good news will more likely to have a better reaction. I also feel we mite get more volume next year also as on the face of this year, the gains in equities would have made people feel they have missed out. Secondly if we have better data we mite incur more speculation on rate movement which should bring people in from the sidelines and lastly, I cant imagine it to be as bad as this year so by default it should be better!
For my own personal trading, I will aim to be a bit more bold as this year I was quite defensive. Trade with more size, and really give it a go. Ill keep you informed on how it goes!
Happy New Year and best of luck for next year!
When looking back the main issue really was lack of volume. Due to various factors including the decline of MF Global and PFG best, confidence in the market isn't what it once was and hence more people staying on the sidelines and have there money in safe investments rather then be in the market. This is a shame really but a reality. I can only hope the regulators get there act together to stop scandal mania happening as frequently in the future.
As far as the markets are concerned, with the pledge of low rates for multiple years and a generally sluggish economy, have seen Bond yields remain at record low yields for the best part of the year, coupled with rising equity prices which goes against the conventional correlation but with no return to be found in other asset classes, it was inevitable that money going into stocks was the best bet.
With spreads, as you would expect has been in a super tight range, which has made it easily predictable but the low volume environment has meant that its been a slow trade, with multi day holds being the new day trading!
Also with the low rate environment reaction to data has been very mute, so news trading has been quite tough as well.
Looking to next year, I certainly have more optimism, as the FED has pinned a target on the employment rate at which it would consider moving on rates. This would give the market a focus, and so any good news will more likely to have a better reaction. I also feel we mite get more volume next year also as on the face of this year, the gains in equities would have made people feel they have missed out. Secondly if we have better data we mite incur more speculation on rate movement which should bring people in from the sidelines and lastly, I cant imagine it to be as bad as this year so by default it should be better!
For my own personal trading, I will aim to be a bit more bold as this year I was quite defensive. Trade with more size, and really give it a go. Ill keep you informed on how it goes!
Happy New Year and best of luck for next year!
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