Thursday, 13 March 2014

Euribor Spreads hits new lows

As the market has come off significantly off late, the Euribor Spreads keep inching downwards to a point where there in my opinion not really much room down to go. The risk to reward for an upside move here is very favourable so personally I have kept adding to my position. I've been playing it relatively small as generally the action has been very slow so the conditions generally haven't been good to lump in big. As I write I'm long 3s and 3.5s in Mar15Jun15, Im long 5, 4.5 and 4s in Jun15Sep15, and long Sep15Dec15 long 6.5s and 6s. I will be willing to add more on should it continue going lower as I think we will get a small pop soon, but as mentioned previously any push up would be an opportunity to sell and I would expect the spreads to come back down again.

Equities are taking a big beating today, but still at very high levels, despite the big drop ES is still around 1847 which is about 2% from intraday highs. Given that next week is triple witching week, we could get quite a bit of volatility. Also with the FED meeting next week, coupled with a raft of UK data we should get ore volatility.

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