Yesterday we got a cut in the main rate the deposit rate and the refi rate from the ECB, with the deposit rate going negative as expected. As you would expect there was a lot of volatility after the number with the initial reaction being a sell of in Bonds and a slight steepening in the Yield curve, which seemed to be a relief trade before going the way you would expect it. Spreads have dropped to new lows with a big flattener put on today, with Jun16Sep16 trading 5.5/6s considering the previous low was 7, Sep16Dec16 trading 6.5/7s with previous low being 7.5, so the question is how much can it keep going down. Naturally I've been buying it all the way down like a kid that don't learn from previous mistakes. I got back in way too soon, so will be looking to do another averaging job to hopefully get out.
Todays big Non Farm Payroll turned out to be a bit of a non event as everything came in line, however it still managed to be good enough for more record highs in this Stock Market, as I wrote last week and at the beginning of the year, too much cash on the sidelines, no Yield anywhere so Yield chasing continues. Despite saying this for a long time, I continue to try short it, which as you can guess hasn't been a good move. I guess there is no limit to how high this can go, as valuations and general health of the economy doesn't mean much when there is a supply and demand imbalance.
Next week is light in terms of data so its likely to be quiet in general. Hope to get a bounce in these Spreads!
Todays big Non Farm Payroll turned out to be a bit of a non event as everything came in line, however it still managed to be good enough for more record highs in this Stock Market, as I wrote last week and at the beginning of the year, too much cash on the sidelines, no Yield anywhere so Yield chasing continues. Despite saying this for a long time, I continue to try short it, which as you can guess hasn't been a good move. I guess there is no limit to how high this can go, as valuations and general health of the economy doesn't mean much when there is a supply and demand imbalance.
Next week is light in terms of data so its likely to be quiet in general. Hope to get a bounce in these Spreads!
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