Showing posts with label BoE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BoE. Show all posts

Thursday, 20 November 2014

Big miss on German PMI

A big miss on German PMI today with the Flash Manufacturing coming in at 50 (exp 51.5) and Services coming in at 52.1 (exp 54.5). Since Germany is carrying Europe pretty much this number will come as some concern to Euro Leaders and the ECB increasing the likelihood of all out QE in the Eurozone, and that lovely word QE is just what the stock market loves, and most likely will propel Dax and Cac to further higher moves.
This is the environment that the central bankers have created, but when things turn it will turn hard!
In terms of reaction today, we had the expected push up in the Bund, with a 30 point move in the space of 5 minutes with resistance at 151.52 which was Mondays lows.  A break up above this level will bring about 151.77 as the next target, and then 152.10, the week highs the next target after that.

Across the channel, the UK benefited from better retail sales, with the divergent growth between Eurozone, Japan, UK and US becoming ever wider. Because of this its unlikely that the US or UK will have the balls to pull the trigger on rates leaving this easy bias around for longer.
ES is down 7 dollars as I write, and Dax down 40, BTFD?

Friday, 12 September 2014

Bonds Selling off as Dollar Strengthens

As Equities remain elevated, Bonds have taken the cue to sell off, as expectations of rate movements from the FED and BoE weigh.
Euro Bonds upside has been capped as it seems as though the ECB has used most of its bullets, with rate cuts and the announcement of QE in last Thursdays rate meeting.
I have generally tried to go long as much as I can in the Euribor Spreads as the floor for now has been set, and I went long into the initial fall in Spreads during the press conference to then realize profit as the floor seemed to be reached and the curve started to steepen slightly.
The following day we had weaker NFP as well, with the instant reaction in Equities going up, and Bonds going up also. This reaction proves the fact that the market doesn't care about fundamentals, its trading on the basis of cheaper money for longer, and this is the main driving force behind the one way move that we observe day after day.
Despite this worse number, the dollar has reached multi month highs, as expectations for FED tightening takes hold.
The market has been tough to trade as the trends have been strong, and despite, oversold conditions in some USD fx pairs, there doesn't seem to be any stabilization as of now.However I'm using options to play direction so as to not be whipsawed out but the frequent spikes that have been occurring.
Currently I'm long Corn, with a put bought as protection, and I'm short ES via a Call Spread financed by a out of the money put. A slight correction would be nice!
Looking forward we have US Retail Sales due, which could provide a bit of volatility,

30 Yr Strategy Update

Its been a quiet period since the end of August with two trades being triggered, one for a loss and one for a profit. Overall profit has been 2 ticks.

Front month WTI Futures plunges to negative $37 as storage costs rocket

It was a move of epic proportions in the front month WTI Crude futures, the significance of which is not really known of yet, but was incre...