Showing posts with label CAC Bund Euribor Spreads. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CAC Bund Euribor Spreads. Show all posts

Monday, 13 October 2014

Equities got a right beating!

Its been a wild few days in the Equity markets worldwide. From a position where we barely have had any 1% moves this whole year, to having them on a regular occurrence. This move was inevitable as the markets were too overstretched, but while central Banks continue to maintain super accommodative policy the risk for a melt down style move remain, as there is only so much yield chasing that can be done.
Either way it will be interesting around these levels, as I think there is still more downside to go but it will be very volatile, which will give some good opportunities for day traders, which is a good thing, since its been a crap day traders market this year.
My one real annoyance, is that I have had some kind of short in Index position for the best part of 7 or 8 months via options, and apart from being long VIX, I pretty much haven't benefited from the move down which is very frustrating, as its sods law that the move happens when you don't have your position on. But thats trading for you, the silver lining was the fact that I was long Corn and took nice profits on it although I got out way too early, and left a lot on the table.
Going forward I'm getting long Short Sterling Spreads on the this flattening that has occurred, and will keep adding to my position if it continues to go down, and generally try to get stuck into some of the volatility in these Indices.

Monday, 6 October 2014

NFP beat helps rally Equities

So it is back to business as usual as the Equities rallied strongly friday afternoon after a bit of a mixed week. Euro Indices came of quite strong with the Dax pushing 9200, FTSE 100 testing 6400 and the EuroStoxx testing 3100. The US indices have come off relatively less, but now are in mid range territory from high to recent low. I feel like there is a bit more resistance then usual as the markets are likely to consolidate, however the plunge in the VIX on friday might suggest a bit more upside to come.
Euro Indices are likely to remain under more pressure as data coming out has not been good and this mornings German Factory orders was a big miss. This coupled with the fact that the ECB is staying put with its current program suggests there is limited upside for now.
Not much to report on the Bond front, I'm using pullbacks in Short Sterling Spreads to go long, and the same with Eurodollar and Euribor Spreads.
I still remain long corn, hoping for a bit more of a move to get out, ideally above 3300.

Tuesday, 10 April 2012

The sell off continues - Mad CAC spike!

Equities are continuing the weakness this week, and we breached 140 in the Bund, nearing record low yields in the German 10 year, as well as other 10 year contracts.
Euribor Spreads continued lower, and now breaching previous support levels, but as I do I'm buying into them, especially the back months as the spread is becoming too tight given its so far out, and probabilities favour a bounce. Im long Dec13Mar14 at 7s, given that we were trading above 10s a few weeks back, I think there is good value in this, although it still may drop a bit before going up.
Given the long holiday the 7am open was always going to provide some volatility, and we got it with a massive spike down in the CAC as it looked like some dumped a boatload at market causing a 100 fat tick spike down in a matter of seconds before it retraced later in that 1 minute bar.
See below:

The move in the CAC was very brutal and it was either a make or break if you were involved.
Looking at Bonds, it will be interesting to see how long the Bund can hold these ultra low yield levels, and as has held true before, I think we are good for a 100 pips at least to the downside, although I think the nearer the Bund is to 141, the more appealing the trade will be.
Good Luck

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