Leaking Data Early - Not Really Surprised!

I've been beating on about leaked data for quite a while now and the recent allegations of a KPMG senior partner divulging insider info show a peek into whats happening. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22087201)
We know have a case with a Thomson Reuters employee. Read below: There is plenty of it out there, but at least the authorities are getting some penetration into this.


Reuters) - A former Thomson Reuters Corp employee has filed a lawsuit saying he was fired for telling the Federal Bureau of Investigation that he believed the company violated insider-trading laws in releasing a consumer sentiment survey early to some subscribers.
In the lawsuit, filed on Wednesday in Manhattan federal court, Mark Rosenblum said he was terminated after telling U.S. authorities that the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers was released at different times to different subscribers.
"We believe the accusations from the complainant against Thomson Reuters to be unsubstantiated and without merit, and we will defend against them vigorously," a company spokesman said in a statement.
Rosenblum said in his court papers that Thomson Reuters releases the monthly survey to so-called "ultra low-latency" subscribers at two seconds before 9:55 a.m. ET, to "desktop" subscribers at 9:55 a.m., and to the general public at 10 a.m.
In the financial services industry, low latency is a reference to higher speed services often used by high-frequency traders.
Rosenblum said in the court papers that last June 29, he told an unnamed FBI agent that he believed this "tiered release" violated federal securities laws, and that on the same day he told company executives that he had contacted federal investigators about the matter.
In the lawsuit, Rosenblum said he was fired on August 3 from his job as a redistribution specialist, without severance, for engaging in protected whistleblowing activity under the 2010 Dodd-Frank law. He is seeking unspecified compensatory and punitive damages.
Jesse Rose, a lawyer for Rosenblum, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
FBI spokesman Jim Margolin declined to comment.
The case is Rosenblum v. Thomson Reuters (Markets) LLC, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 13-02219.

There is plenty of it out there, but at least the authorities are getting some penetration into this.

Non Farms Disappoints

On Friday we had a big miss in Non Farm Payrolls, with 88k Jobs created in the US when expectations where for 190k. We came off in Equities as you expect and Bonds rallied.  But this didnt last for long as the US markets rallied into the close and ended down a fraction of what it was down earlier. Today we are rallying so what does that tell you?
Well Bunds are above 146, highest in months, the Yield curve is flatter then ever, but Stocks continue to rise, and this is because now it is very unlikely that there will be any tightening as far as monetary policy goes for a long time still, and so cheap money remains, and since Yields are so low in other asset classes, Equities seem to make sense as there are good dividend paying stocks which will yield you much better returns then the 1.X% you will get with Uk, German or US 10 years.

Looking at Euribor Spreads we trading at the bottom of the range for pretty much all 3 month Spreads, which make buying the only logical Trade for me personally right now, but with reduced volumes and volatility, its a matter of waiting it out.
Im currently long 0s in Mar14Jun14 in Short Sterling, and long 1s in Jun14Sep14 Short Sterling.
Looking forward, there's not much in terms of data this week, so mite be pretty quiet, so hoping for some other news to spice things up!

When leaked data doesn't work out so well!

I have been seeing Nat Gas data leaked pretty much every time, but yesterdays number is one where it didn't work out so well. As usual a few seconds before the number Nat Gas Spiked seconds before the official release on what ended up a slight drawn down in storage. However we then had a 90 tick spike down, which cant have been nice for those long, and continued downside ensued.

Although this doesn't take away from the fact that data is getting leaked alot more, or people are making it much more obvious that they know the number.

European Yield Curve continues to flatten

As worries about Cyprus continues and the possible knock on effect on the rest of Europe we have seen the type of trade which was common in 2007/2008 where we had a flattening Yield Curve, and at the current pace it could even become inverted!
Currently we have the Bunds up 64 ticks for the day and Mar14 Euribor down 1/2 tick and on its lows.
Spreads have continued to come off and are on lows that I haven't seen yet for this cycle. I continue to buy into this, but very cautiously as it doesn't look like letting up at the moment.
What the main risk is whether the credit grade of Euribor will worsen, and if so we will see the front months get hit quite a lot as Inter bank lending can dry up on the sign of loss of confidence within Banks.
With a four day weekend coming up in Europe, I suspect something big will be announced over the weekend.
We shall see!

Another week, another bout of leaked data

Today we had a lot of data out, and they're were all out of line from expectations, which led to some nice moves in the market. But wouldn't it be nice if you knew the number before hand. Well some people do, and its becoming a bit of a joke. We had UK retail sales numbers at 9 30 UK time, with cable being pushed up 20 ticks or so coming into the data, you could see buy orders pushing it up just as the data was due.

And in a more blatant leak, Nat gas again was spiked down 40 ticks just before the number came out, and then low and behold a build in nat gas and we had a bigger spike.

In other stories, Cyprus continues to dominate the headlines, as the uncertainty over what will be there course of action is unsettling the market.
Also poor PMI numbers out of Germany and France pushed the Euro lower.
Euribor yield curve continues to flatten into the afternoon, as Mar14Jun14 is trading at 3.5s, and Jun14Sep14 is approaching 4.5s. These levels held up very well earlier in the week, so if they get there again, mite be worth a load up!

Cyprus Issue pushing down Spreads.

While equities continue to go higher on the back of possible action out of Cyprus, Euribor and Short Sterling Spreads and the Yield Curve in General has been under alot of pressure, as we approach multi month lows in these spreads.
As I always do I have been buying these Spreads as they approach these levels, but with a bit more caution as its hard to tell how long this will continue. Yesterday presented some good volatility as we pushed up in Bonds, before retracing a large part of it. Mar14Jun14, Traded from 5s to 5.5s, yesterday but today has traded down to 4s as the move continues downwards. Im long some 4s and 4.5s looking to get out at 4.5s if it comes. This story is replicated along the curve, in the red/greens, Mar15Jun15 traded 6.5s rebounded to 7.5s, and now trade back to 6.5s and traded as low as 6s earlier this morning.
Todays action has not been as volatile as yesterday, but there has been so big clips going through, on this yield curve flattening.
Going forward the main event of the week is tomorrows FED announcement  This will give further guidance on how accomodative the fed will be, hoping for some fireworks!

Trading Update

Been a couple of weeks since my last update. Mainly because there hasn't been anything out the ordinary trading wise. Its pretty much been lower volume and volatility as far as fixed income is concerned with spreads drifting lower.
We had the ECB and Non farm last week, with Draghi being less dovish then was expected, which gave a boost to the euro. Non farm came out much stronger as well, with well over 200k jobs created in the US in the previous month with unemployment rate ticking down to 7.7% This has helped to underpin the rapid rise in the stock markets as we are hitting record high after record high in this DOW.

Personally i think we are due a big correction, but it seems that any sign of weakness is the sign for stocks to be snapped up for those waiting for pullbacks.
As far as spread trading is concerned, I have been long pretty much for the past week, trying to nick half a tick here and there. Ive been trading mainly around Jun14 to Jun15. Especially Mar15Jun15 spread which traded as low as 7s, and is now back up to 8s. Im now looking to short this at 8.5s if it gets up there. I'm also looking to short 7.5s in Dec14Mar15.
Hopefully we will get some better volatility out of these markets in the coming week considering its quarter end, and roll over for all contracts pretty much.
Looking ahead this week, the main data we have is US retail sales on Wednesday, and CPI figures on Friday as well as triple witching on Friday with expiries in March Stock Index Futures and Options, which could lead to some wild movements.